By Asbjørn Rolstadås, Per Willy Hetland, George Farage Jergeas, Richard E. Westney (auth.)
Investors and executives of significant tasks know the way usually they bring about price overruns and time table delays. Risk Navigation thoughts for significant Capital Projects builds on traditional most sensible perform to supply a risk-based view of present practices for making plans and executing huge overseas projects.
As economies of scale proceed to force tasks to ever-higher degrees of scope and complexity, new considering approach and possibility is needed. given that significant initiatives are hugely uncovered to exterior hazards, the conventional view of predictability as anything that may be mandated and ensured by means of rigorous software of traditional top perform has develop into a fantasy. clean considering is needed to regulate tasks at the present time, and this booklet offers a framework for taking undertaking administration top perform to the following level.
Risk Navigation techniques for significant Capital Projects is meant for executives making an investment in significant initiatives, venture leaders and bosses, in addition to people with a instructing or learn curiosity in venture and chance management.
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The implication of something being uncertain. Something being uncertain relates to the originators of the uncertainties, defined as • Caused by nature. • Caused by man. • Implied by deployed technology. Further, the implication of something being uncertain, relates to • Urgency of time. • Potential consequences. • Risks. Uncertainty related to nature spans a range from extreme forces with low frequency such as major earthquakes to normal forces of high frequency such as bad weather conditions.
In the unknown-closed segment, the information available to us is incomplete and ambiguous, hence quality decisions cannot be made. Typically, this kind of uncertainty occurs at defined project decision gates. In the unknown-open segment, uncertainty is unidentifiable and unexpected. It is in this segment that we find the black swans. The known-closed (deterministic uncertainty) category is similar to the spinning wheel of casinos. e. the number of possible outcomes, their values and their probability of occurrence are all known.
Most Blue Oceans are created in a Red Ocean by extending its limits. The survival strategy is to escape the Red Ocean and sail into a Blue Ocean. Blue Oceans are created continuously. If we look back one hundred years, how many of the products of today existed then? They have all been Blue Oceans. The Blue Ocean strategy is to create new markets. How can we apply this strategy to managing mega projects? We claim that most mega projects are competing for management strategies in a Red Ocean. Our solution is to show a way to escape the Red Ocean and create a Blue Ocean.
Risk Navigation Strategies for Major Capital Projects: Beyond the Myth of Predictability by Asbjørn Rolstadås, Per Willy Hetland, George Farage Jergeas, Richard E. Westney (auth.)